Frameworks prevent data manipulation

Pali Lehohla is statistician-general of South Africa and head of Statistics SA. File picture: Supplied

Pali Lehohla is statistician-general of South Africa and head of Statistics SA. File picture: Supplied

Published May 30, 2016

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In an article published in Business Report on May 26, 2016 , your correspondent quotes Colen Garrow asking if “South Africa (is) manipulating its gross domestic product figures and other data in order to achieve a favourable outcome (with respect to imminent rating agency announcements)”.

The country’s GDP figures and most other economic data are published by Statistics SA, widely respected for its methodological rigour and independence which are established by the Statistics Act.

The act ensures confidentiality of data and safeguards the institution from external interference in any aspect of its operations, including publication of final results. The statistics council safeguards this independence. Furthermore, Statistics SA subscribes to the UN’s 10 fundamental principles of official statistics.

Among others, these dictate that the behaviour of the statistical office should be ethical and free from interference.

Stats SA complies with the rules, standards, frameworks and guidelines of international statistical oversight structures such as the UN Statistics Commission, World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is an active member of this international community and has subjected many of its series, including GDP, to independent evaluations.

Key Stats SA outputs such as the GDP and consumer price index comply with the highest international quality standard, namely the Special Data Dissemination Standard of the IMF.

Our aim is to ensure that statistics are a conduit of trust on which policy can be debated and formulated.

The forthcoming GDP results are the outcome of a four-year project aimed at integrating compilation of all GDP estimates under one institution according to international best practice.

The plan to revise both production and expenditure-based estimates was communicated to the user community on numerous occasions. The one week extension of the publication date (to accommodate the simultaneous release of production and expenditure estimates) was announced last November, and again in March at the time of the most recent GDP publication.

The set of revised GDP time series released last week – earlier than the results of the first quarter of this year – provides users with insight into how the GDP, as calculated from the expenditure side, differs from previous estimates.

Many analysts, including those in rating agencies, can use this, together with other data to calculate their own estimates of GDP growth before the release of the official numbers on June 8.

* Pali Lehohla is statistician-general of South Africa and head of Statistics SA.

** The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of Independent Media.

BUSINESS REPORT

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